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• Large cargo propane prices cif Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) premiums to underlying front month cif ARA propane swaps surged to a 14-year high of $83.50/t in the second half of February, as firming petrochemical demand met dwindling imports from the US. But the premium retreated to low teens by early March following less aggressive bidding in the open market.
• A positive spread as wide as $83.50/t indicated perceived physical tightness as local and extra-regional supply proved insufficient. US LPG exports to northwest Europe hit a 15-month low of 360,000t in February, with importers struggling to compete for US exports with Asian-Pacific buyers. Local availability offered little assistance, with Norwegian exports sinking to 320,000t in February, a 58,000t month-on-month fall.
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Find out moreThis information comes from our suite of regular LPG market services. For daily prices and market commentary: Argus LPG International and Argus NGL Americas. For regular, detailed market insights: Argus LPG World. For forecasts on prices and market fundamentals: Argus LPG Outlook and Argus Analytics – LPG Service.
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Asian prices lagged gains in crude benchmarks as supply exceeded demand in the run up to summer. In April, the US exported nearly 2.9mn t of LPG to Asia-Pacific, up 29pc from the same month last year. While China’s import appetite grew by 21pc during the first four months of 2024, rising supply was also seen from the Mideast Gulf region, where producers increased exports by 4.7pc over the same period.
Ample global supply capped price movements on the April Argus Far East Index (AFEI), which ended the month largely unchanged despite a 2.5pc gain in front-month Brent values.
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The front-month Asian propane-naphtha spread averaged a $93/t discount in April which led crackers to maximise the use of LPG. Ethylene makers from China and south Korea snapped up May and June shipments of propane and butane as operating rates stayed above 81pc in the wake of firm ethylene prices.
Taiwan’s Formosa Plastics procured 46,000t propane for June delivery at $75/t discount to June naphtha quotes.
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Saudi Arabia’s state-controlled Saudi Aramco lowered April propane and butane Contract Prices (CP) to $580/t and $585/t, respectively, down from the previous month. The end of seasonal refinery maintenance in the first quarter, coupled with falling demand in summer, pressured prices lower.
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At the end of April, the average operating rate at Chinese PDH was 55pc, down from 66pc at the end of March, as production margins remained in negative territory.
China’s strong import volumes were supported by increased propane cracker demand.
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Mont Belvieu, Texas, EPC butane weakened relative to crude in April alongside seasonally weaker demand in the domestic gasoline blending market. Prompt-month butane fell from 48.7pc of Nymex WTI at the start of April to only 44.1pc of crude by the beginning of May, down versus 44.7pc of Nymex WTI last year.
Mont Belvieu, Texas, EPC propane fell to just over 70¢/USG in the first few days of May, the lowest price since early January. Production gains continue to bolster a bearish outlook for the summer months before the start of the 2024-2025 winter heating season.
EPC propane’s value as a percentage of Nymex WTI, a bellwether metric for the feedstock, fell to under 40pc in May, the lowest value versus crude seen since the end of November.
The EIA last reported propane inventories at 56.9mn bl the last week of April, 14pc above the five-year average. The shoulder months before last year’s heating season showed a similar overhang, as US stocks rose to 102.4mn bl in late October 2023, well above the 86.8mn bl seen the year before. Yet despite milder temperatures this past heating season, steady exports managed to draw down US stocks well into early April.
This year, some market participants fear exports won’t keep pace with growing production, as US terminals, which can usually ship just over 2mn b/d of propane, could be hard-pressed to keep up with production well over that level. US petrochemical demand for propane, which can help draw down stocks during the summer months, remains comparatively weak compared to previous years as prices for ethane, a competitive feed for ethylene cracking, are lower alongside weakness in natural gas.
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