Please find a selection of case studies with a summary of the deliverables for each project.
European Cracker Landscape & Competitiveness
What the client wanted: to understand the competitive position and feedstock alteration of a particular cracker complex in Western Europe.
What Argus delivered: Argus provided (i) long-term forecast prices for crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, propylene, and C4+ cracker products; (ii) supply, demand and trade outlook for the cracker products; (iii) a review of the hydrogen landscape including pipelines, bilateral agreements, and upcoming projects; (iv) a critical review of the client’s competitiveness, showing the position of the complex vs. other West European crackers; (v) profiling of competitors to highlight feedstock, products, integration, and decarbonisation; and (vi) assessment of the regulatory landscape, enhanced producer responsibility, and how these could affect the cracker complex operations in the future.
Circular Plastic Long-Term Price Forecast:
What the client wanted: as an active participant in Europe’s circular plastic industry, the client sought long-term price forecasts for post-consumer recycled (PCR) plastic grades and chemically-recycled products.
What Argus delivered: Argus developed a bespoke price model for PCR bales, flakes, pellets, and chemical recycling materials (pyrolysis oil, circular naphtha, etc.). Argus also provided a recycling supply/demand/trade balance, subdividing demand for each polymer by feedstock (mechanical recycling, chemical recycling, circular naphtha, fossil) with commentary on expected substitution, demand and supply drivers, and chemical recycling capacities. Argus provided a detailed review of the EU’s regulatory framework, discussing each relevant European legislation, its effect on the price forecasts, and expected impacts to the client’s operations.
Renewable Ethylene Cost Competitiveness:
What the client wanted: to benchmark the cost of production of ethylene, based on renewable feedstock – bioethanol (EU/ARA, sugar beet, wheat, corn, cellulosic), biomethanol (methanol-to-olefins), HVO, and biomethane.
What Argus delivered: Argus performed an initial screen of feedstock availability and cost per CO2 saving (in terms of $/kg CO2 reduction) for different bio-feedstock grades. Subsequently, developed a cost or production model to assess four technologies to produce renewable ethylene, at plant gate and delivered to Europe, for 2025 and 2030. Argus provided input prices for both fossil energy and green energy, where applicable. Argus selected an appropriate geographic location and capacity/scale of each plant and gave commentary on the relative positions of the bio-based routes within the ethylene cost curve, commenting on disparities with conventional (e.g., naphtha).
Oleochemical Market Study & Survey:
What the client wanted: as a technology provider for “fat splitting” of natural triglycerides into fatty acids and glycerine, the client requested support for their market and sales strategy.
What Argus delivered: Argus conducted a two-phase study: (1) identification of optimal question set and survey group, by conducting in-house analysis of oleochemical market fundamentals, producer dynamics (e.g., level of upstream integration into bio-feedstock), and applicability of client’s technology, to estimate market size capturable by the client; (2) subsequent market intelligence gathering through spoken interviews. Argus gained 12 positive leads for the client, resulting in eight parties interested in connecting with the client to further discuss the client’s fat splitting technology.