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Methanol prices in major markets diverged in 2024—particularly the Atlantic basin versus Asia. Early 2025 saw Atlantic basin prices begin to soften as the plethora of operating issues began subsiding. Unfortunately for buyers, a few outages lingered and by summer North America/Europe prices again strengthened. All the while, Asia (China) prices remained relatively weak as poor olefins prices capped MTO methanol affordability values. Increasing imports into Asia are too aiding lower market prices.
Looking ahead, a slowing of new methanol capacity additions against expected growth in methanol demand is narrowing the gap between supply and demand. But excess capacity remains. There is the likelihood some methanol unit rationalisation will further reduce oversupply. Most new capacity will come from Iran, possibly North America and some further expansion in China—although China is aggressively exploring industry rationalization at the same time.
Early expectations for notably improved demand growth in 2025 now appear to be minimal, with 2026 growth likely below previous expectations as well. China’s large MTO sector struggles to see their appetite for methanol feedstock improve in 2025, but there are two new MTO units scheduled for 2026 which suggests hope for increased methanol demand. Other major economies will have to rely on positive GDP growth to underpin increasing methanol demand.
Low carbon methanol is unquestionably the hot topic currently and it is clear the marine industry is underpinning potential demand. At the same time, China is far in the lead, fast adding new capacity and seemingly leading the world in pricing.
In this webinar, Argus’s methanol experts deliver insights into:
VP, Methanol and Derivatives
Dave is responsible for steering Argus’ methanol and derivatives services. He has 25 years of experience in the petrochemicals sector plus another 24 years of consulting experience, with previous roles in field sales, distribution planning, hydrocarbon purchasing, and manufacturing and operations planning, prior to his consulting career. Dave is responsible for the development and publication of the Argus Methanol Outlook – a monthly publication of forecasted prices in key regions, and the Argus Methanol Analytics – an extensive study of global methanol supply, demand, trade flows and expected capacity additions.
Head of European Methanol
Victoria joined Argus in 2020 and is Head of European methanol and MTBE/ETBE markets. She contributes to benchmark spot price assessments, as well as supply and demand analytics for the Argus Methanol and Argus Fuels and Octanes services. Victoria has over ten years’ experience covering the methanol and fuel octanes markets with pricing and consulting firms. She holds MA and MPhil degrees from Trinity College, University of Cambridge.
Lead Methanol Consultant, Asia
Becky Zhang has been with Argus for 10 years and is currently Asia Methanol Lead Consultant. She has more than 15 years’ experience in real-time market editorial, mainly in the olefins and methanol markets, and is familiar with volatile chemical market dynamics with broad industry networks across Asia. Becky is a regular presenter at olefins and methanol conferences and forums. She is a chemical engineering graduate from East China University of Science and Technology, and holds two masters’ degrees in Environmental and Energy Engineering from the University of Sheffield and Entrepreneurship from the University of Nottingham.
Key spot prices and analysis for the methanol market on a daily basis.
24-month rolling price forecast and forward-looking analysis of global methanol markets.
10-year forecast and five-year history covering supply and demand fundamentals, capacities and detailed expert insight for the methanol markets.
