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What is the current state of the sustainable aviation fuel market?
Is Europe still the largest demand market and how will key legislation changes and credit incentives affect the SAF market in the US? Asia remains a key supply source but how will potential demand affect incremental supply?
We will hear from our freight experts as SAF policy and demand create global trading opportunities in this market. Finally, we will cover supply/demand forecasts for the SAF global market and identify future opportunities and challenges that remain.
Topics at a glance:
Europe
- Refuel EU and UK SAF mandates driving consumption
- SAF vs HVO class II, current state of play
SAF pricing mechanism and risk management; ICE Argus SAF futures contract
- HEFA-SPK decoupled from fossil Jet
US
- Change in Market Interest as buyers pay closer attention to Europe. SAF is now exported from the Gulf Coast
- 45Z updates, removal of Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC), extension of deadline, new feedstock regulations
- Post BTC effects, credit markets, and floated chance of a return
Asia
- Developments in regional policies (China’s 2nd 1pc blending trial in 4 airports/recently allocated funding to SAF R&D from the Future Made in Australia fund)
- Asian SAF supply overview (newly announced or operational capacity) including China Haixin/Fathope/Bangchak)
- SAF price trends (comparison between Singapore netback and fob China)
- The feedstock challenge (introducing new domestic hydrotreating UCO price)
Freight
- Vessel specs, cargo sizes and common voyages
- Freight rate drivers and state of specialised tankers
- What's holding back USGC-USWC flows
Future of freight
Outlook
- Long- and short-term forecast for the SAF global market