Our revamped Argus Fertilizer Analytics services are produced by experienced industry experts who combine deep market knowledge with rigorous analytical techniques to help you understand the impact of economic and political events on future market and price developments.

Our key methodologies include our demand forecasting model based on calorie and crop forecasts to guide our view of future fertilizer consumption and our Long Run Marginal Cost (LRMC) multi-factor model to assess the level of prices beyond the current investment cycle.

 

Price forecasts with clear methodologies


  • Short-term forecasts by month and quarter linked to energy and raw material prices, crop prices, FX changes and the merchant supply/demand balance

  • For the current investment cycle (5-7 years ahead), Short-Run Marginal Cost forecast and supply/demand balance, with project gateway assessment

  • Beyond the current investment cycle, our longer-term forecast is based on LRMC analysis (updated annually)

  • The medium- and long-term forecasts are connected using a mean-reversion model

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